With the advent of the peak season, cultural papers set off another wave of price increases. March has entered the traditional peak season of cultural paper, the market began to start a new round of price increase mode, this price increase letter more and more advance in advance, some copy paper manufacturers have sent price notification to May, peer to the market outlook The expectation is obvious.Orders for April have only just begun to receive orders. Manufacturers have issued price notifications in succession. The following is just a notification of price increases currently received. Has risen for a year and a half, why is it still rising? From the perspective of political economy, price is the monetary expression of value, and price fluctuations are caused by supply and demand. It is clear that prices are determined by two factors: one is value and the other is supply and demand.
1. The paper mill is in short supply
March entered the traditional peak season of cultural paper, autumn teaching materials began to prepare, in 2018 compared to the order of 2017 publishers ahead of schedule, because the price increase in 2017 is too fast, many publishers can not book. Some publishers signed a supply contract with the paper mill in January and entered a centralized delivery period in March. The orders for the publication diverted most of the production, and the supply of social orders was insufficient. The supply of paper mills falls short of demand, and price increases are used to balance
2. Low inventory of mainstream paper mills
The Spring Festival of 2018 ended at the end of February. Some paper mills had poor delivery during the Spring Festival, which led to an increase in inventory. However, the stock papers were basically papers with orders. However, logistics impacts could not be shipped. After the Spring Festival, the logistics gradually recovered and the factory inventory was half. The month has already fallen back to a low level. At present, the inventory of cultural paper manufacturers has dropped to about 15 days.
3. Dealer inventory is not high
Years ago, the paper mill subsidized the dealers and the February price increase was not implemented in the form of giving profits to dealers. The price of the dealers was reversed. The pre-holiday dealers cherished the cash flow and waited and watched the emotions. The monthly paper mill announced a price increase. Because the supply-demand paper mills began to control the orders, it was very difficult for the distributors to replenish their stocks for a while, and inventory was maintained at a low level of about a month.
4. Value return
Culture paper uses 80% pulp, and in January 2017, coniferous pulp, which was $610 per ton, rose to $890 by March 2018, and broadleaf pulp rose from $530 to $790. In other words, over a year's time, the increase in softwood pulp and broadleaf pulp was as high as 46% and 49%, respectively.Pulp futures still have upward momentum: In January, China's CIF price for bleached softwood pulp (NBSK pulp) increased by US$10 per ton. In February and March of 2018, the NBSK pulp US CIF price increased by US$30 per ton for two consecutive months, starting from April 1st. Brazil's hardwood pulp rose by 10 dollars in Asia.
5. Pulp supply unexpectedly frequent:
− A pulp mill in Indonesia began repairs at four pulp mills in China and Indonesia on March 15th, reducing production by 300,000 tons, two weeks ahead of schedule.
− Parrot Fibria's bleached eucalyptus pulp (BEK) plant in South Mato Grosso, central-western Brazil, began scheduled maintenance on March 18th.
The total production capacity of the two BEK pulp lines for this maintenance was 3.25 million tons/year, and it is estimated that the maintenance will end on April 5. The manufacturer stated: "This shutdown was the oldest overhaul of the Parrot Três Lagoas pulp mill."
− The Klabin Puma pulp mill was shut down from March 10 to March 21.
− In Chile, Arauco's 550,000 tonne/year BSK/BEK slurry line in Valdivia is scheduled for a 12-day overhaul in March.
With the increase of industry concentration, market monopolies will gradually replace market competition, and the pricing power of large enterprises will also increase. Coated and white cardboard have basically completed industry integration, and leading companies have obvious market share advantages. When the demand is strong and the price of raw materials is rising, the passing of corporate costs also has upward momentum. Copy paper as a further extension of the offset paper, the price is closely related to the offset paper, a reasonable price difference makes the copy paper follow-up power more adequate.
With high costs and insufficient supply, the cultural paper mills can only start to increase their prices in line with market conditions. The peak season has come and the parties are optimistic about the stocks and make reasonable orders. We will be together in 2018.
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